Sustaining Pakistan-Sponsored Terrorism: The Nuclear
Balance of Terror
Subodh Atal,
June 2000
Recent US intelligence reports indicate that Pakistan's
nuclear arsenal is much larger than previously publicized. An estimate of up
to 100 warheads, or five times that of India, has now been reported by US
intelligence sources. These newly publicized estimates bring into the open the
impotency of India, US and the entire western world in combating international
terrorism.
A decade ago in 1990, at the outset of the terrorist
war in Jammu and Kashmir inspired and supported by Pakistan, India threatened
to attack terrorist bases and supply lines in Pakistani territory in order to
bring about an early end to the violence. Such an action would have repeated
the events of 1965, when Pakistan sent mujahideen and tribals supported by its
own military across the Line of Control in the state, and India countered by
opening several fronts that effectively routed the Pakistani proxy war.
In 1990, however, the equation had changed
drastically. Pakistan, as reported by award-winning New Yorker reporter
Seymour Hersh, used its newly built nuclear arsenal as its ultimate blackmail
threat. Reportedly, US-supplied Pakistani F-16s were armed with nuclear
weapons, and India was dissuaded from using surgical strikes against terrorist
bases to quickly end the terrorist insurgency. The Pakistani nuclear threats
have continued during the past decade, and were reemphasized during the Kargil
skirmishes in 1999. Indian authorities, concerned about nuclear retaliation
against Indian population centers, stayed just inside their side of the Line
of Control in Jammu and Kashmir state. This is clearly the only situation in
history where a country has used nuclear blackmail in terrorist operations
against another nation.
The recent reports about the overwhelming superiority
of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal thus provide a powerful glimpse into the
actions (or lack of actions) of both the Indian and the United States
governments in countering what is regarded by both countries as the premier
terrrorist threat in the world. The Indian government is conciously treading
lightly, and willing to undergo a slow bleed in Jammu and Kashmir despite the
magnitude of the daily death and destruction unleashed by Pakistan-sponsored
terrorist groups.
Furthemore, many observers have been surprised by the
weak-kneed response by the US administration to Pakistan's continued
involvement as a major entity of a terrorist "hub". Amos Perlmutter
(Washington Times, May 24, 2000) recently questioned the US State Department's
contradictory handling of Pakistani terrorism. Ex-US Ambassador Arthur Davis
also has expressed identical sentiments.
However, the recent revelation of the size of
Pakistani nuclear arsenal provides a very likely explanation of the impotent
US response to what is clearly the largest international terrorist threat.
With 100 nuclear warheads now in place, Pakistan is one of the rogue states
that the US itself perceives a future threat from. While North Korea, Iran and
Iraq are far away from a successful nuclear weapons program, Pakistan has
planes and missiles armed and ready. With no record of successful democracy,
and military and civilian governments alike clearly controlled by Islamic
terrorist groups that threaten the US regularly, Pakistan is likely viewed by
the State Department as the most credible nuclear threat in the coming decade.
Kashmir Information Network believes that the recent explanations provided by
the US State Department about its refusal to declare Pakistan a terrorist
sponsor are misleading at best. The real reason may be that, until the US has
a strategic missile defense system in place, it is in no position to pursue an
aggressive policy against an unstable country with 100 nuclear warheads
controlled by anti-US and anti-western Islamic fundamentalist groups that
collaborate and co-train with the likes of Osama Bin-Laden.
